Our portfolio has returned to pre-Trump bump levels. In the past few weeks our portfolio is down over $200k. That amount is double what Mr. Moneyaire and I used to make combined gross when we first married. I have a sneaking suspicion it’ll go down even more as tariffs take hold and prices increase on everything from avocados to dishwashers. Tariffs are trouble, especially when they’re put on products we heavily rely on for everyday living. Don’t take it from me, Warren Buffet has said tariffs are “an act of war.“

If you’ve been aghast by the price of eggs, strap in. More than half of fresh fruits and vegetables come from Mexico & Canada alone. Trump has targeted those two countries for tariffs. Though tariffs have been postponed for now, just the fact that they’re being bandied about is causing a lot of uncertainty in the markets and in American homes. Grocery shopping is about to become much more expensive if these tariffs are kept in place.

In times like these, what is it exactly that we should be doing? Let me share what the Moneyaires are doing:

We’re putting large expenditures on hold

We’ve really wanted to remodel parts of our home. We’ve recently updated our 30 year old builder grade floors, staircase and fireplace. We had planned to do some more remodeling in our basement and our kitchen, but for now it’s on hold. Why are we putting these expenditures on hold, even though we’ve saved to get these things done?

We’re saving our cash

With inflation likely to go up because of tariffs, everything is about to become more expensive – including services. This will likely mean that the federal reserve will be unlikely to lower interest rates. If that is true, that probably means savings accounts will continue to pay 4% or better interest on the money parked there. Which is great, because we’re loading up our emergency fund, just in case.

It’s likely that unemployment may rise. As goods and services become more expensive, eventually there will be less money available for companies to make investments – especially in people. What would be a messy situation is rising unemployment, rising prices and a government unwilling to provide assistance. Which, seems likely given the cost cutting ambitions of the Department of Government Efficiency.

I’m closely watching my favorite stocks and ETFs

There’s a lot of volatility in the markets right now. This means that stock prices are going way up and way down sometimes within a single day. We’re invested in several ETFs like IVV and VNQ. Plus, I hold several single stocks. I’m watching the prices on these equities. As panic ensues in the market, I’m buying shares as they “go on sale.” I don’t use a lot of technical analysis to gauge whether or not a stock or ETF is on sale. I look at the 52 week high and low and when a stock is off it’s 52 week high near the mid point, I may buy a few shares. And, I literally mean a few. Like 2, or 3 or 5.

It’s a take on dollar cost averaging but I’m buying a handful of shares on the days where the market is down a lot and specific shares are getting beaten up. When good companies are trading down because of macroeconomic factors out of their control, like tariffs, that’s a buy signal for me. Be wary though. Sometimes, these factors can bankrupt a company. Best to invest in broad indexed passively managed exchange traded funds. Doing so will allow you to diversify your risk.

Maybe, Likely, Probably…

You may have noticed I’m using a lot of hedging words like “probably”, “likely”, “if” etc. It’s because I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. I can’t predict what will happen – no one can. But I can theorize what might happen and strategize. I’m optimistic long term about the US economy. I use down turns in the market as buying opportunities. I use upticks in the market to harvest gains. Its a pretty simple approach, and its worked for me, so far.

However…

I could be wrong. The volatility and downturns we’re experiencing right now could be the tip of the iceberg to economic disaster that is unrecoverable. I’m just sharing my line of thinking and what I’m doing during this rather tumultuous time. I do know that investing does come with risk and you could lose all your money by mimicking me.

If you’re unsure about buying in this market, then don’t. Save your money and don’t invest it. Put it in a savings account that offers a worthwhile interest rate. You’ll still face the ravages of inflation but not the severe drops you could face in the stock market because of tariffs or whatever comes next.

However, the lag between a bull market and when you decide to start investing again could be too late to catch the rocket to riches the stock market has provided in the past. I’m not giving anyone out there specific individual investment advice in this post, I’m just sharing what I’m doing.

Good Luck!

Mrs. Moneyaire